What drives class solidification in China? A multidimensional decomposition of intergenerational mobility

Abstract

We analyze the evolution of intergenerational class mobility in China from a multidimensional perspective, exploring the underlying mechanisms driving this mobility. Using data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) spanning 2008 to 2021, we find that class barriers remain persistent, with offspring from middle- and upper-class families more likely to remain in higher social classes. The variance decomposition analysis shows that intra-community differences contribute only 35% to the mobility coefficient, while external differences account for the remaining 65%. Specifically, inter-provincial differences explain 32%, while inter-community differences within the same province account for 33%. When educational differences are incorporated, they account for 52% of the coefficient in the full sample. Notably, educational differences explain 7% of the intra-community proportion, two-thirds of the inter-community proportion (excluding inter-provincial effects), and nearly all of the inter-provincial proportion. We also perform a heterogeneity analysis by grouping the sample based on birth cohort, residential area, and gender. Additionally, we incorporate subjective class perception as a variable, revealing the prevalent bias in class identification among Chinese residents. Therefore, mitigating the development gaps between communities and provinces, and ensuring equitable access to educational opportunities, are key strategies for improving intergenerational mobility in China.