Hydrological ensemble prediction and verification for the Meuse and Scheldt basins

Abstract

We present the hydrological ensemble prediction system developed at the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium to study the Meuse and Scheldt basins. An overview is presented of the hydrological model and the operational setup of the forecasting system. We present some results of a 3-year hindcast that was performed to verify the quality of the probabilistic forecasting system. The raw precipitation forecasts and streamflow forecasts are considered: we provide skill scores and relative economic value for various subcatchments of the Meuse and Scheldt basins. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.