Foresight for Sustainable Last-Mile Delivery: A Delphi-Based Scenario Study for Smart Cities in 2030

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the future trajectories of last-mile delivery (LMD), and their implications for sustainable urban logistics and smart city planning. Through a Delphi-based scenario analysis targeting the year 2030, this research draws on inputs from a two-round Delphi study with 52 experts representing logistics, academia, and government. Four key thematic areas were explored: consumer demand and behavior, emerging delivery technologies, innovative delivery services, and regulatory frameworks. The projections were structured using fuzzy c-means clustering, and analyzed through the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT), supporting a systemic understanding of innovation adoption in urban logistics systems. The findings offer strategic insights for municipal planners, policymakers, logistics service providers, and e-commerce stakeholders, helping align infrastructure development and regulatory planning with the evolving needs of last-mile logistics. This approach contributes to advancing resilient, low-emission, and inclusive smart city ecosystems that align with global sustainability goals, particularly those outlined in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.