Distribution models of baleen whale species in the Irish Exclusive Economic Zone to inform management and conservation

Abstract

Irish waters are under increasing pressure from anthropogenic sources including the development of offshore renewable energy, vessel traffic and fishing activity. Spatial planning requires robust datasets on species distribution and the identification of important habitats to inform the planning process. Despite limited survey effort, long-term citizen science data on whale presence are available and provide an opportunity to fill information gaps. Using presence-only data as well as a variety of environmental variables, we constructed seasonal ensemble species distribution models based on five different algorithms for minke whales, fin whales, humpback whales, sei whales, and blue whales. The models predicted that the coastal waters off the south and west of Ireland are particularly suitable for minke, fin and humpback whales. Offshore waters in the Porcupine Seabight area were identified as a relevant habitat for fin whales, sei whales and blue whales. We combined model outputs with data on maritime traffic, fishing activity and offshore wind farms to measure the exposure of all the species to these pressures, identifying areas of concern. This study serves as a baseline for the species presence in Irish waters over the last two decades to help develop appropriate marine spatial plans in the future.