Development of Multiparametric Prognostic Models for Stereotactic Magnetic Resonance Guided Radiation Therapy of Pancreatic Cancers

Abstract

Purpose: Stereotactic magnetic resonance guided adaptive radiation therapy (SMART) is a new option for local treatment of unresectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, showing interesting survival and local control (LC) results. Despite this, some patients will experience early local and/or metastatic recurrence leading to death. We aimed to develop multiparametric prognostic models for these patients. Methods and Materials: All patients treated in our institution with SMART for an unresectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between October 21, 2019, and August 5, 2022 were included. Several initial clinical characteristics as well as dosimetric data of SMART were recorded. Radiomics data from 0.35-T simulation magnetic resonance imaging were extracted. All these data were combined to build prognostic models of overall survival (OS) and LC using machine learning algorithms. Results: Eighty-three patients with a median age of 64.9 years were included. A majority of patients had a locally advanced pancreatic cancer (77%). The median OS was 21 months after SMART completion and 27 months after chemotherapy initiation. The 6- and 12-month post-SMART OS was 87.8% (IC95%, 78.2%-93.2%) and 70.9% (IC95%, 58.8%-80.0%), respectively. The best model for OS was the Cox proportional hazard survival analysis using clinical data, with a concordance index inverse probability of censoring weighted of 0.87. Tested on its 12-month OS prediction capacity, this model had good performance (sensitivity 67%, specificity 71%, and area under the curve 0.90). The median LC was not reached. The 6- and 12-month post-SMART LC was 92.4% [IC95%, 83.7%-96.6%] and 76.3% [IC95%, 62.6%-85.5%], respectively. The best model for LC was the component-wise gradient boosting survival analysis using clinical and radiomics data, with a concordance index inverse probability of censoring weighted of 0.80. Tested on its 9-month LC prediction capacity, this model had good performance (sensitivity 50%, specificity 97%, and area under the curve 0.78). Conclusions: Combining clinical and radiomics data in multiparametric prognostic models using machine learning algorithms showed good performance for the prediction of OS and LC. External validation of these models will be needed.