Research on the Impact of RCEP on China’s Manufacturing Output and Trade: Based on GTAP Simulation

Abstract

The signing of RCEP is a milestone for regional economic integration in East Asia. This paper aims to seize the opportunities brought by RCEP to China’s manufacturing industry and promote the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry. Therefore, the paper sets up three simulation scenarios, uses GTAP10 to simulate the impact of RCEP on China’s subdivided manufacturing industry, and further explores the impact of RCEP on China’s manufacturing industry with different technical levels. The results show that: 1) The reduction of intra-regional trade costs under tariff concessions will promote the increase of output, import and export trade in most of the manufacturing sectors in China; 2) When the tariff is zero, it will obviously promote the import and export of low-tech and medium-high-tech industries in the region. In order to better grasp the benefits of RCEP, we need national policy support and the improvement of the core competitiveness of enterprises.