Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model

Abstract

An analysis of the simulated distribution of present (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) heat waves in China from one run of a regional model (PRECIS) using the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario is presented. Results indicate that PRECIS simulates the spatial distribution of the extreme high tail of the probability density function of summer temperature in the present case compared to observations. In addition, the characterization of anticyclonic circulation anomalies with heat waves is well simulated by the model. The model projects that heat waves will be more intense, longer and more frequent, with distinct geographical patterns. Western northwest China and northeast China are projected to experience more heat waves than at present. © Inter-Research 2010.