Study on the impact of new quality productive forces on agricultural green production efficiency

Abstract

The development of new quality productive forces provides an innovative pathway for China’s high-quality agricultural development and the construction of an agricultural powerhouse. Utilizing panel data from 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan Province, China (2001–2021), this study systematically examines the impact mechanisms and spatial heterogeneity characteristics of new quality productive forces on agricultural green production efficiency through fixed-effects models and threshold regression approaches. The findings indicate that new quality productive forces exerts a significant positive driving effect on agricultural green production efficiency, with conclusions remaining robust across multiple robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that technological innovation capacity plays a substantial mediating role in this relationship. Regional heterogeneity tests demonstrate pronounced promotional effects in Northern Henan and Western Henan, whereas impacts on Eastern Henan and Central Henan lack statistical significance. Threshold models further identify nonlinear enhancement characteristics of the promotional effect when agricultural machinery input intensity crosses specific thresholds, with dual-threshold effects observed. Based on this, some suggestions were put forward to improve the ability of scientific and technological innovation and promote the development of agricultural green environmental protection.