Effect and lag period of urban agglomeration construction land growth on economic growth based on lagged variable model: A case study of the beijing-tianjin-hebei urban agglomeration

Abstract

Urban agglomeration is an important engine for the development of economic and social systems in a country or region, and its development cannot be separated from the use of construction land. However, there is a time-lag effect of urban agglomeration construction land growth on economic growth due to the process of land investment, construction land development, benefit generation, benefit enhancement, and benefit stabilization. Therefore, it is of great significance for the supply and management of regional construction land and the sustainable development of the economy and the society to calculate the length of lag period and the size of total effect, and to explore its internal mechanism. Based on the statistical data of 13 major cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 1995 to 2017, this study put forward a lag variable model of the construction land growth to economic growth, and obtained the number of lag period, the effect of each period, and the total effect of each city in the region. This study also analyzed the reasons for the differences in time-effect combined with the level, functional orientation, and industrial composition of each city. The research found that: 1) There is a general lag effect of construction land growth on economic growth in the urban agglomeration, with a lag period of 0-4 years. 2) The growth of the urban agglomeration's construction land has a significant positive effect on economic growth, and the total effect is between 1.66 billion-49.5 billion yuan/ km². 3) The lag period and total effect of urban agglomeration construction land growth on economic growth show the spatial differentiation feature of core-periphery differences. 4) The lag period is mainly related to the level and function of the cities. The lag periods of high-level central city, medium level sub-central city, and low-level node city are 4 years, 2 years, and 0-2 years respectively. 5) The total effect is mainly related to the industrial composition. The corresponding effects of high-end, medium-end, and low-end industries are 30 billion-50 billion yuan/km², 10 billion-20 billion yuan/km², and 1 billion-10 billion yuan/km², respectively.