The environmental and material implications of circular transitions: A diffusion and product-life-cycle-based modeling framework

Abstract

Circular business models (CBMs) and their potential environmental benefits have been widely assessed by using life cycle assessment (LCA). However, most LCA studies consider static systems and assume instant and full technology adoption, limiting the analysis of the implications of circular transitions. Considering technology diffusion in LCA models may bring a better understanding of the environmental implications of the adoption of CBMs. Nevertheless, diffusion is also related to stock dynamics, which are difficult to represent in classic LCA models. To overcome these issues, we propose a modeling framework that integrates three modeling families to assess the environmental impacts and material implications of the adoption of CBMs: diffusion of innovations, product stock dynamics, and LCA. We present a method of application and illustrate it with a theoretical case study. This framework might be useful in the socio-economic analysis of systems transitioning to CBMs, especially in systems that involve long-lived products.