IMPLEMENTASI METODE HOLT WINTER ADDITIVE UNTUK PREDIKSI KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN NUSANTARA KABUPATEN SUMENEP

Abstract

ABSTRAK Adanya peningkatan kunjungan wisatawan di Kabupaten Sumenep yang tidak dapat diduga, sehingga perlu dilakukan peramalan untuk memprediksi jumlah kunjungan wisatawan di Kabupaten Sumenep pada periode yang akan datang. Dalam kesempatan penelitian kali ini dilakukan peramalan kunjungan wisatawan di Kabupaten Sumenep menggunakan metode hold-winters exponential smoothing additive, metode hold-winters exponential smoothing additive merupakan metode yang didasarkan pada tiga persamaan smoothing yaitu smoothing level, smoothing trend, serta smoothing musim. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa data time series kunjungan wisatawan Kabupaten Sumenep dari bulan Januari 2015-Februari 2020. Hasil dari penelitian yang telah dilakukan diperoleh nilai akurasi peramalan SMAPE terbaik sebesar 13,65%, dengan nilai í µí»¼ = 0,01; í µí»½ = 0,01; í µí»¾ = 0,37. Berdasarkan hasil nilai akurasi peramalan SMAPE yang telah didapat, metode peramalan hold-winters exponential smoothing additive dapat menjadi rujukan untuk penyusunan strategi pembangunan dan pemasaran wisata di Kabupaten Sumenep. Sehingga dapat meningkatkan efektivitas dalam pengambilan keputusan dan meningkatkan perekonomian di Kabupaten Sumenep. ABSTRACT There is an enhancement of unexpected tourists visitation in Sumenep district; therefore, it should be conducted forecasting to predict the number of tourists visitation in Sumenep district in future period. In this chance of study, researcher conducted forecasting of tourists visitation in Sumenep district using Hold-Winters exponential smoothing additive method. Hold-Winters exponential smoothing additive method is a method based on 3 similarities of smoothing which are smoothing of level, smoothing of trend, and smoothing of season. Used data in this study was in form of time series data dealing with tourists visitation in Sumenep district from January 2015 until February 2020. Result of this conducted study was gained value of best forecasting accuracy of SMAPE by 13,65%, with the value α = 0,01; β = 0,01; γ = 0,37. Based on the obtained result of the value of forecasting accuracy of SMAPE, Hold-Winters exponential smoothing additive can be as a reference for building structuring and travel marketing in Sumenep district. Thus, it can increase effectiveness of decision-making and enhance economy in Sumenep district.