Forecasting cash outflow and inflow in Jember with ARIMAX calendar variation effect

Abstract

Bank Indonesia is an independent Central Bank in carrying out its duties and powers. Regarding the authority to issue and circulate Rupiah currency, a plan for printing money and the composition of the money to be printed is required for the next one year. Inflow and outflow forecasting can be used to estimate people's money needs. The purpose of this study is to predict the inflow and outflow of currency in Jember using the ARIMAX method with calendar variations. The majority of religions in Indonesia are Islam, in this regard, the Eid al-Fitr is used as a calendar variation. Besides, the inflow and outflow spikes occurred between a month before and a month after Eid al-Fitr.