Risk Assessment under Uncertainty

Abstract

System safety assessment (SSA) has become a standard practice in air traffic management (ATM). System safety assessment aims, through a systematic and formal process, to detect, quantify, and diminish the derived risks and to guarantee that critical safety systems achieve the level of safety approved by the regulatory authorities. Verification of compliance with the established safety levels becomes the last but an essential part of the safety assurance process. This chapter provides a Bayesian inference methodology to assess and evaluate the compliance with the established safety levels under the presence of uncertainty in the assessment of systems performances.