The Impact of Implementing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms on the Steel Industry until 2034: A Forecasting Study †

Abstract

The metallurgical sector, a key component of European industries, plays a crucial role both in advanced economies and in the infrastructure development of emerging nations. As environmental concerns increasingly influence global trade policies, the introduction of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) becomes a pivotal factor, especially those affecting the steel industry. This study focuses on assessing the impact of CBAM implementation on the steel industry’s evolution until 2034, utilizing a combination of econometric models and scenario analysis.