Breaking the cartel: The geography of the electoral support of new parties in Italy and Spain

Abstract

The factors explaining the emergence and electoral success of new parties have been investigated extensively on a cross-national basis, but little is known about why their vote shares differ within a specific country at any given time. This article is an attempt to fill this gap by examining the determinants of electoral support of Podemos and Movimento 5 Stelle across Spanish and Italian municipalities. Using empirical evidence from the 2014 European Parliament elections, we show that a bad economic situation at the local level increases the vote shares of these parties. We also demonstrate that these parties perform better in towns where abstention rates have previously increased, and the population is comparatively younger, and the possible existence of interaction effects between all these factors.