Fiscal Consequences of the US War on COVID

Abstract

After 2000, ratios of tax collections to GDP and government expenditures to GDP have departed from 19th and 20th century US patterns. Before 2000, wartime government expenditure/GDP surges were accompanied by permanent rises in expenditure/GDP and tax collection/GDP ratios. Part of the War on COVID expenditure/GDP surge has persisted, but so far tax collections have not risen relative to GDP. If that discrepancy persists, the consolidated federal government budget constraint portends permanently higher US inflation and higher nominal interest rates on US government interest-bearing bonds.