STICS Soil–Crop Model Performance for Predicting Biomass and Nitrogen Status of Spring Barley Cropped for 31 Years in a Gleysolic Soil from Northeastern Quebec (Canada)

Abstract

Spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is an increasingly important cash crop in the province of Quebec (Canada). Soil–crop models are powerful tools for analyzing and supporting sustainable crop production. STICS model has not yet been tested for spring barley grown over several decades. This study was conducted to calibrate and evaluate the STICS model, without annual reinitialization, for predicting aboveground biomass and N nutrition attributes at harvest during 31 years of successive cropping of spring barley grown in soil (silty clay, Humic Gleysol) from the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region (northeastern Quebec, Canada). There is a good agreement between observed and predicted variables during the 31 successive barley cropping years. STICS predicted well biomass accumulation and plant N content with a low relative bias (|normalized mean error| = 0–13%) and small prediction error (normalized root mean square error = 6–25%). Overall, the STICS outputs reproduced the same trends as the field-observed data with various tillage systems and N sources. Predictions of crop attributes were more accurate in years with rainfall close to the long-term average. These ‘newly calibrated’ parameters in STICS for spring barley cropped under continental cold and humid climates require validation using independent observation datasets from other sites.