The application of Model Output Statistics to precipitation prediction in Australia.

Abstract

The Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique has been used to produce forecasts of both the probability of precipitation and the rain amount for 7 major Australian cities. Single station equations were generated using data from the current objective analysis, together with some surface observations for the same time, and a 24h prognosis based on that analysis, to predict the rainfall in the 24h beyond the prognosis validity time. In order to increase the usefulness and acceptability of the MOS predictions, transformations were applied that reduced the biases of the final throughout the forecast ranges. The skill with which large rainfall totals were predicted was particularly enhanced in this manner: the MOS forecasts showed much greater skill in the prediction of large totals than was achieved by either the operational or persistence forecasts, while predicting small totals with comparable proficiency.-from Authors