An interpretable fast model for predicting the risk of heart failure

Abstract

Lately, thanks to the huge amount of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data, deep learning models have been successfully applied to a variety of clinical prediction problems. Existing state-of-the-art clinical predicting models are usually built with recurrent neural network (RNN) and attention mechanism. However, such RNN based approaches mainly suffer from three limitations on clinical predictions, which if addressed would significantly widen their applicability. (i) Accuracy: The performance of RNN based models drops fast when the length of EHR sequences increases. (ii) Interpretability: The prediction results of RNN based models are hard to interpret due to the nature of deep models. (iii) Efficiency: The sequential property of RNN based models makes the parallelization of computation impossible, and accordingly hurts the efficiency of such models in practice. In this paper, we propose an efficient attention-based model to address the above three challenges simultaneously. In the context of heart failure prediction task, we demonstrate the interpretation capability of our model by visualizing relative connections between events and prediction result, and the high computational efficiency comparing to other baseline methods. Meanwhile, we show that the accuracy of our prediction model is comparable or better than those of other state-of-the-art prediction models in healthcare applications.