Lstm-Rnn Based Approach for Prediction of Dengue Cases in India

Abstract

Data driven health care research is accentuated due to the Gargantua data available in the form of structured and unstructured. Forecasting the impact of infectious and epidemic diseases will be of major assistance to the health care industry. The objective of this work is to study the impact of dengue cases across India by applying the Deep Learning methodologies based on Long Short-Term Memory using Recurrent Neural Networks. The factors considered in the prediction method are climatic conditions, temperature, rainfall data, humidity and population considered for the period between 2014 and 2019. The activation function applied is ReLU and on training the model using LSTM the level of accuracy in forecasting the epidemic is over 89% for infection and for death it is 81%. The Root Mean Square Error values are also computed and it is observed that when the number of iterations is increased the error value decreased. The proposed methodology assists the Health care department to make safety precautions before the outbreak of the dengue fever.