Excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: underreporting and regional inequalities in Brazil

Abstract

Brazil is one of the most heavily impacted countries by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the real number of deaths from the disease makes the scenario even more challenging. This study aimed to estimate the excess deaths and their differences in adults 20 years and older in Manaus (Amazonas State), Fortaleza (Ceará State), Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo, according to place of death, demographic characteristics, and trajectory over time. The data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the Central Information Office of the National Civil Registry. The estimates of expected deaths were obtained from quasi-Poisson generalized additive models, adjusting for over-dispersion. From February 23 to June 13, 2020, 74,410 natural deaths were recorded in the four cities, with 46% excess deaths (95%CI: 44-47). The largest amount of excess deaths was in Manaus, with 112% (95%CI: 103-121), followed by Fortaleza with 72% (95%CI: 67-78), Rio de Janeiro with 42% (95%CI: 40-45), and São Paulo with 34% (95%CI: 32-36). Excess deaths were greater in males and non-significant in Epidemiologic Weeks (EW) 9-12, except in São Paulo, 10% (95%CI: 6-14). The peak in excess deaths generally occurred in EW 17-20. The number of excess deaths not explained directly by COVID-19 and deaths at home or on public byways is high, especially in Manaus. The high percentages of excess deaths, deaths not explained directly by COVID-19, and deaths outside the hospital suggest high underreporting of deaths from COVID-19 and reinforce the extensive spread of SARS-CoV-2, as well as the need for epidemiological surveillance services to review all causes of deaths associated with respiratory symptoms.