Sensitivity and specificity of suspected case definition used during West Africa ebola epidemic

Abstract

Rapid early detection and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD) is contingent on accurate case definitions. Using an epidemic surveillance dataset from Guinea, we analyzed an EVD case definition developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and used in Guinea. We used the surveillance dataset (March-October 2014; n = 2,847 persons) to identify patients who satisfied or did not satisfy case definition criteria. Laboratory confirmation determined cases from noncases, and we calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. The sensitivity of the defintion was 68.9%, and the specificity of the definition was 49.6%. The presence of epidemiologic risk factors (i.e., recent contact with a known or suspected EVD case-patient) had the highest sensitivity (74.7%), and unexplained deaths had the highest specificity (92.8%). Results for case definition analyses were statistically significant (p<0.05 by χ2 test). Multiple components of the EVD case definition used in Guinea contributed to improved overall sensitivity and specificity.