Serum markers detect the presence of liver fibrosis: A cohort study

Abstract

Background & Aims: Histologic examination of a liver biopsy specimen is regarded as the reference standard for detecting liver fibrosis. Biopsy can be painful and hazardous, and assessment is subjective and prone to sampling error. We developed a panel of sensitive automated immunoassays to detect matrix constituents and mediators of matrix remodeling in serum to evaluate their performance in the detection of liver fibrosis. Methods: In an international multicenter cohort study, serum levels of 9 surrogate markers of liver fibrosis were compared with fibrosis stage in liver biopsy specimens obtained from 1021 subjects with chronic liver disease. Discriminant analysis of a test set of samples was used to identify an algorithm combining age, hyaluronic acid, amino-terminal propeptide of type III collagen, and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase 1 that was subsequently evaluated using a validation set of biopsy specimens and serum samples. Results: The algorithm detected fibrosis (sensitivity, 90%) and accurately detected the absence of fibrosis (negative predictive value for significant fibrosis, 92%; area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot,. 804; standard error,. 02; P