Seismicity and vulnerability in Himalayas: The case of Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

Seismicity in Himalayas is much in evidence. Historical records reveal that devastating earthquakes have been a regular feature of the entire Himalayan system. Besides providing knowledge of what happened in the past these historical records hold clues that might be of great significance for assessing risk potential associated with seismicity. Earthquakes cause tremendous loss to life and property all around the world every year. The amount of loss in terms of life, property and the disruption of key infrastructure and facilities has been rising continuously. Although there are no strong evidences that suggest a rise in seismic activities, the increasing population concentration in seismically sensitive zones has raised the degree of human vulnerability to such events underscoring the need for their study. Historical records on seismicity show that a large number of earthquakes have occurred in the western Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh since times immemorial. An evaluation of the location and distribution of earthquakes in the study area and the potential human population which may be vulnerable has been carried out. Historic seismicity in Himachal Pradesh from has been studied from the ancient period to the beginning of 21st century. Defining where the vulnerable population resides is one of the key questions for disaster mitigation and prevention policies. The vulnerable population with respect to seismicity in the state has been mapped based on information from ancient Indian literature, historical archives, books, memoirs and catalogues prepared by various scholars and organizations and the patterns of population concentration. The results underline that very high seismic zones coincide with the areas of high population concentration and these are the areas in need of effective intervention and specific action for reducing the impact of this disaster. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.