Migration, climate change and the futures of global population redistribution

Abstract

Migration and climate change are both sensitive and critical political issues facing governments over the immediate future. This brief article summarises the results of recent thinking on the topics. It highlights the difficulties in separating causes from effects and of disentangling the interlinkages among them. Climate, or more accurately environmental, change has always been among the drivers of migration, although rarely the major driver. Even with accelerated climate change, it is likely to remain so. Internal migration is likely to account for the majority of movers, although it is the minority of international migrants who drive the political agenda. Developmental variables and population redistribution across age profiles and space are examined. Those left behind as trapped populations make up an often-unacknowledged development challenge as those with access to resources move to more favourable political, economic, and environmental regions.