A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions

Abstract

Environmental modeling studies aim to infer the impacts on environmental variables that are caused by natural and human-induced changes in environmental systems. Changes in environmental systems are typically implemented as discrete scenarios in environmental models to simulate environmental variables under changing conditions. The scenario development of a model input usually involves several data sources and perhaps other models, which are potential sources of uncertainty. The setup and the parametrization of the implemented environmental model are additional sources of uncertainty for the simulation of environmental variables. Yet to draw well-informed conclusions from the model simulations it is essential to identify the dominant sources of uncertainty. In impact studies in two Austrian catchments the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate discharge and nitrate-nitrogen ( NO 3 - - N) loads under future changing conditions. For both catchments the SWAT model was set up with different spatial aggregations. Non-unique model parameter sets were identified that adequately reproduced observations of discharge and NO 3 - - N loads. We developed scenarios of future changes for land use, point source emissions, and climate and implemented the scenario realizations in the different SWAT model setups with different model parametrizations, which resulted in 7000 combinations of scenarios and model setups for both catchments. With all model combinations we simulated daily discharge and NO 3 - - N loads at the catchment outlets. The analysis of the 7000 generated model combinations of both case studies had two main goals: (i) to identify the dominant controls on the simulation of discharge and NO 3 - - N loads in the two case studies and (ii) to assess how the considered inputs control the simulation of discharge and NO 3 - - N loads.