Ensemble forecasting of a continuously decreasing trend in bladder cancer incidence in Taiwan

Abstract

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignancies involving the urinary system of about 1.65 million cases worldwide. To attain the 25 by 25 goal set by the World Health Organization (25% reduction in non-communicable diseases between 2015 and 2025), developing strategies to reduce cancer burdens is essential. The data of the study comprised the age-specific bladder cancer cases and total population numbers from age 25 to 85 and above from 1997 to 2016 in Taiwan. An ensemble age–period–cohort model was used to estimate bladder cancer incidence trends and forecast the trends to 2025. For men, the projected age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 people in 2020 and 2025 are 13.0 and 10.4, respectively, with a 16.1% and 32.9% decrease projected from 2016 to 2020 and 2025, respectively. For women, the projected age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 people in 2020 and 2025 are 4.7 and 3.7, respectively, with a 16.1% and 33.9% decrease projected from 2016 to 2020 and 2025, respectively. The age-specific bladder cancer incidence rates demonstrated a consistently downward trend after 2003 for all ages and both sexes. This study projects that the incidence rates of bladder cancer in Taiwan will continue to decrease, and more than a 25% reduction can be achieved from 2016 to 2025.