Extreme weather, harvest failures, and epidemics: southern Sweden during the 1783–1785 crisis

Abstract

This article studies a compound extreme climate event and one of the last major mortality events that occurred in southern Sweden during the years 1783–1785. Harvest failures and grain shortages in large parts of the Swedish realm followed one the worst agricultural droughts in the historical record in the late spring and summer of 1783. In addition, contemporaries observed anomalous amounts of sun-smoke in the summer of 1783, likely related to the Lakagígar volcanic eruption that began in June of that year. The subsequent winters after the eruption were extremely cold, contributing to an already tenuous situation of malnutrition and poverty following the agricultural drought. Using detailed climate, agricultural, and demographic data, this article tracks the development of the crisis and attempts to establish a causal chain of events. We find that southern Sweden experienced clearly elevated grain prices following the harvest in 1783, building on an already constrained situation with high grain prices since 1781, with increased mortality beginning in September 1783, and in particular during the late winter and spring of 1783/1784 and lasting throughout most of 1785 and, to a lesser extent, 1786. Births also decreased in the period 1784–1787. A substantial part of these adverse demographic outcomes can be attributed to widespread malnutrition following the 1783 drought and the anomalously cold conditions during the subsequent winters.