Structural Break Analysis and Price Transmission of Bulk Cooking Oil in the Indonesian Palm Oil Agribusiness System

Abstract

Volatility in Indonesia’s bulk cooking oil market has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic, disrupting household consumption and threatening national food security. This study analyzes structural breaks in the price dynamics of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB), Crude Palm Oil (CPO), and bulk cooking oil, as well as asymmetric price transmission before and after key government interventions. Weekly data from 2020–2024 were examined using the Additive Outlier test, the NARDL model, the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test, and the Wald test. The results reveal a significant structural break in April 2022, associated with the CPO export ban, DMO/DPO policies, and the implementation of a retail price ceiling (HET). Before the break, short-run price transmission was asymmetric but became symmetric in the long run. After the intervention, short-run transmission was symmetric, while long-run asymmetry persisted, indicating downward price rigidity and reduced market efficiency. These findings suggest that government intervention effectively stabilized short-term prices but created long-term structural distortions. Strengthening distribution efficiency, improving price transparency, and adopting more adaptive policies are essential to enhance market efficiency and economic food resilience.Volatilitas di pasar minyak goreng curah Indonesia telah meningkat sejak pandemi Covid-19, memicu ketidakstabilan konsumsi rumah tangga dan mengancam ketahanan pangan nasional. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi titik-titik pemutusan struktural dalam dinamika harga Tandan Buah Segar (TBS), Minyak Sawit Mentah (CPO), dan minyak goreng curah, serta menganalisis transmisi harga asimetris di seluruh rantai pasok sebelum dan sesudah intervensi kebijakan utama. Data deret waktu mingguan dari tahun 2020–2024 dianalisis menggunakan uji pemutusan struktural Additive Outlier, model Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), uji kausalitas asimetris Hatemi-J, dan uji restriksi koefisien Wald. Temuan penelitian menunjukkan adanya pemutusan struktural yang signifikan pada bulan April 2022 menyusul larangan ekspor CPO, regulasi DMO/DPO, dan penerapan batas atas harga eceran wajib (HET). Sebelum pemutusan tersebut, transmisi harga bersifat asimetris dalam jangka pendek tetapi konvergen secara simetris dalam jangka panjang. Setelah jeda tersebut, simetri terjadi dalam jangka pendek, sementara transmisi jangka panjang menjadi asimetris secara signifikan, menunjukkan kekakuan harga yang terus menurun dan melemahnya efisiensi pasar. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa intervensi yang ketat berhasil menstabilkan harga jangka pendek, tetapi justru menghasilkan distorsi struktural dan mengurangi daya saing jangka panjang. Penguatan efisiensi distribusi, informasi harga yang transparan, dan kerangka kebijakan yang adaptif direkomendasikan untuk meningkatkan transmisi harga dan mendukung ketahanan ekonomi pangan.