From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short-Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID-19

Abstract

Short-range exposure to airborne virus-laden respiratory droplets is an effective transmission route of respiratory diseases, as exemplified by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In order to assess the risks associated with this pathway in daily-life settings involving tens to hundreds of individuals, the chasm needs to be bridged between fluid dynamical simulations and population-scale epidemiological models. This is achieved by simulating droplet trajectories at the microscale in numerous ambient flows, coarse-graining their results into spatio-temporal maps of viral concentration around the emitter, and coupling these maps to field-data about pedestrian crowds in different scenarios (streets, train stations, markets, queues, and street cafés). At the individual scale, the results highlight the paramount importance of the velocity of the ambient air flow relative to the emitter's motion. This aerodynamic effect, which disperses infectious aerosols, prevails over all other environmental variables. At the crowd's scale, the method yields a ranking of the scenarios by the risks of new infections, dominated by the street cafés and then the outdoor market. While the effect of light winds on the qualitative ranking is fairly marginal, even the most modest air flows dramatically lower the quantitative rates of new infections.