Designing chaotic models

Abstract

After enumerating the properties of a simple model that has been used to simulate the behavior of a scalar atmospheric quantity at one level and one latitude, this paper describes the process of designing one modification to produce smoother variations from one longitude to the next and another to produce small-scale activity superposed on smooth large-scale waves. Use of the new models is illustrated by applying them to the problem of the growth of errors in weather prediction and, not surprisingly, they indicate that only limited improvement in prediction can be attained by improving the analysis but not the operational model, or vice versa. Additional applications and modifications are suggested. © 2005 American Meteorological Society.