Forecasting solar cycle 24 using the relationship between cycle length and maximum sunspot number

Abstract

The parameters characterizing a solar cycle are its length and its maximum sunspot number. There is a good negative correlation (correlation coefficient is -0.661) between the length of a solar cycle and the maximum monthly smoothed sunspot number of the next cycle. This suggests that the length is an important parameter in determining the variations of solar activity. Using this relationship, I forecast lower solar activity in Cycle 24 than in Cycle 23. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.