Welcome to the grey zone: Future war and peace

Abstract

In this article, we develop a scenario of war and peace in Europe’s neighbourhood in 2030 and analyse its implications. We show how the key drivers of shifting global powers, the failure to build an inclusive European project and patchy transnational governance lead to a situation of permanent grey, in which some actors exploit the ambiguity between war and peace to their advantage, while others fail to even realize what is happening. The consequences include different forms of violence and suffering outside of traditional battlefields. Questioning the analytical value of concepts such as grey zone, hybrid and political warfare, we argue that a positive future of peace and the necessary management of the grey zone absent effective global governance require a better and more honest understanding of violence and domination in both war and peacetime. With clearly delineated battlefields gone, so must be the illusion that universal peace existed outside of them.