Was the Malvinas/Falklands a Diversionary War? A Prospect-Theory Reinterpretation of Argentina’s Decline

Abstract

How do we explain the Falklands War? In this article we revisit this episode through a counterfactual analysis using recently declassified documents. These sources cast additional doubt over the diversionary war and miscalculation theses. The evidence suggest that long-term power dynamics and psychological biases affecting the members of the Argentine military Junta better explain the decisions that led to the war.