Historic Land-Use Dynamics and Future Projections in Mexico’s Valley Megalopolis

Abstract

The rapid pace of urbanization and land transformation significantly impacts ecosystems worldwide. Mexico’s Valley Megalopolis, one of the largest and most densely populated areas globally, exemplifies these dynamics. This study analyzes 35 years of land-use changes (1985–2020) and projects four future scenarios up to 2050 using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Urban land per capita increased by 63% (1985–2020), and urban areas are projected to outpace population growth. This expansion drives substantial ecological trade-offs, with native ecosystems increasingly replaced by agriculture and peri-urban habitats under pressure. By 2050, native vegetation is projected to decline by 4%, 10%, and 46%, depending on the scenario, with 9–16% of losses occurring in protected areas. These findings emphasize the urgent need for integrated land-use strategies to mitigate ecosystem losses and balance urban growth with conservation, providing critical insights for policymakers, urban planners, and conservationists globally.