Modeling the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemics: An introduction and a review

Abstract

Introduction: One of the greatest causes of morbidity and mortality in the Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly among young adults, is HIV/AIDS. Many mathematical models have been suggested for describing the epidemiology as well as the epidemiological consequences of the epidemic. A review of some these models would aid researchers in applying them to better understand and control the incidence and distribution of the disease in their countries. Methodology: This study reviews some of the models proposed by various authors for describing the epidemiology as well as the epidemiological consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and how some of them could be modified to suit the situations in other countries. We also discuss the limitations and the place of such models in the fight against the HIV epidemic. Results: A clear explanation of the premises and assumptions on which the models were based was reached by reviewing the models across different scenarios. Conclusion: Mathematical models have been very useful in HIV research, particularly for empirical studies on people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). These models make predictions that generate questions of social and ethical interest. © 2010 Akpa and Oyejola.