Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity Co-Driven Vegetation Coverage Increase in the Three-North Shelter Forest Region of China

Abstract

The Three-North Shelter Forest (TNSF) program is a significant ecological safety barrier in northern China, where both climate change and anthropogenic activity contribute to the increase in vegetation coverage observed. However, comprehensive effects of these factors on vegetation have not been accurately quantified yet. This study utilized the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) data, meteorological data, and spatial distribution of ecological engineering to analyze spatiotemporal variation of FVC and climate in the TNSF program region in China during the period 1982–2018. A partial correlation analysis and residual analysis were performed to determine the relative contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activity to the FVC and the overall effect of ecological governance. Results showed that since 1982, the average FVC in the TNSF program region was 0.201–0.253, with an average growth rate of 0.01·(10a)−1. The FVC showed a significant increase in 66.45% of the TNSF region, and will continue to increase, while only 7.02% showed a significant decrease. The coefficient of variation showed a large spatial variation, with 30.86% being in very low stability regions, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia and the Loess Plateau. A warm and wet climate is more conducive to increasing the FVC than the warm and dry climate, and ecological engineering has the largest impact on areas with an annual accumulated precipitation greater than 300 mm. A quantitative analysis revealed that climate change and anthropogenic activity contributed to the significant increase in the FVC in 15.58% and 46.81% of the TNSF region, respectively. Therefore, ecological governance projects, such as the TNSF program, play a crucial role in enhancing the FVC in this region.