Does First Last? The Existence and Extent of First Mover Advantages on Spatial Networks

Abstract

?is paper examines the nature of ?rst-mover advantages in the deployment of spatially differentiated surface transport networks. Anumber of factors explaining the existence of ?rst-mover advantages have been identi?ed in the literature; however, the questions ofwhether these factors exist in spatial networks, and of how they play out with true capital immobility have remained unanswered. By examining em- pirical examples of commuter rail and the Underground in London, ?rst-mover advantage is observed and its sources explored. A model of network diffusionis thenconstructed to replicate the growthof surface transport networks,making it possible to analyze?rst-mover advantage in a controlled environment. Simulation experiments are conducted, and Spearman rank correlation tests reveal that ?rst-mover advantages can exist in a surface transport network and can become increasingly prominent as the network expands. In addition, the analysis discloses that the extent of ?rst-mover advantagesmay relate to the initial land use distribution and network redundancy. ?esensitivity of simulation results to model parameters are also examined. Keywords: