From lulismo to antipetismo? Polarization, partisanship, and electoral behavior in Brazilian presidential elections

Abstract

Current debates on partisanship and electoral behavior in Brazil have pointed to the growing effect of voters' party feelings toward the two major presidential parties-PT and PSDB-on presidential vote choice. This article contributes to the literature by casting doubt on recent analyses of party polarization in presidential elections. According to the polarization hypothesis, electoral competition between the PT and the PSDB has led to a growing differentiation among the electorate into two clearly separated and polarized blocs. Nevertheless, we claim that this hypothesis lies on fragile theoretical and empirical foundations. Despite the growing importance of partisan feelings in the explanation of voting behavior in presidential elections, our descriptive and multivariate analyses utilizing the 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014 ESEB surveys demonstrate that these trends are clearly not associated with an increase in mass polarization. We observe, instead, that ideological differences between tucanos and petistas are rather minimal. Finally, we also find that ideological convergence between the various subgroups of the electorate has grown over time.