Environmental Change, Strategic Foresight, and Impacts on Military Power

Abstract

After 20 years, a clear definition of environmental security has yet to be adopted at critical policy levels. Since 1989, researchers have argued that security cannot be understood well without taking environmental factors into account, and that future environmental changes will create new security risks and potential for conflict. The surge in interest during the post-Cold War 1990s was more a reaction to specific historical events than actual security, as environmental issues had long been intertwined with security risks and military operations. Environmental factors have always been crucial, but planners have often assumed the consistency of environmental conditions without question. The environment was always perceived as something external and constant, and while environmental damage may result from military preparations and operations, strategic interests were hardly threatened. The last few years have witnessed a new form of environmental security discussion in which global changes present unique risks to stability and operations and new methods are being developed to assess these risks. The military community can play a key role in such strategic scenario planning, and in developing early warning systems for energy and environmental insecurity. Rather than take a simplistic view of environmental and conflictual dynamics, military planners are qualified to assess complex and uncertain risks, but, in so doing, they are required to engage with a larger community of researchers and scientists. This article will define the nature of environmental risks as understood by scientific data, illustrate how environmental changes pose risks to both operations and strategic interests, and recommend how to integrate environmental risks with strategic scenario planning.