Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of plasmodium vivax malaria

Abstract

Recent autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria in previously malaria-free temperate regions has generated renewed interest in the epidemiology of this diseaseAccurate estimates of the incubation period and time to relapse are required for effective malaria surveillance; however, this information is currently lackingBy using historical data from experimental human infections with diverse Pvivax strains, survival analysis models were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the incubation period and time to first relapse for Pvivax malaria in broad geographic regionsResults show that Eurasian strains from temperate regions have longer incubation periods, and Western Hemisphere strains from tropical and temperate regions have longer times to relapse compared with Eastern Hemisphere strainsThe diversity in these estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for Pvivax supports the need for elucidating local epidemiology to inform clinical follow-up and to build an evidence base toward global elimination of malaria.