From Safe to Stranded: Land Use and Climate Change Threaten Habitat of Iconic Australian Macropods

Abstract

As the footprint from human population increases, the associated modification and conversion of natural landscapes in a changing climate places significant pressure on terrestrial wildlife. Since areas of high biodiversity are most affected by urbanisation, there is a need to identify future challenges for species in these regions in the context of intensifying climate change. We investigated habitat dynamics for seven Macropodid species found in the rapidly urbanising, biodiverse Southeast Queensland (SEQ) region of Australia. Habitat suitability was modelled using presence-only occurrence data (2000–2023) in combination with bioclimatic and landscape variables. We employed a balanced Random Forest algorithm to model species distributions, project current and potential habitat and identify key bioclimatic and landscape factors influencing conservation management. A greater amount of predicted current suitable habitat (over one third) for eastern grey kangaroos, swamp wallabies and red-necked wallabies is within the urban footprint, than in protected areas. Conversely, most current suitable habitats for the other species were predicted to occur in protected areas. Worryingly, a decline in suitable habitat (83%–96% reduction) is projected for all seven species under future climate scenarios. Our results reveal the vulnerability of macropods in the region which face compounded threats from urbanisation and climate-induced habitat loss. This study's findings highlight a complex set of factors that could hinder macropod species' adaptability to future environmental changes, elevating ‘least concern’ species to ‘of concern’. Combined pressures from climate change, urbanisation and habitat loss necessitate a broad, adaptive approach to wildlife conservation in human-dominated landscapes.