Clinical validity of subjective clinical prognosis in first episode psychosis schizophrenia patients: An analysis of data from the european first episode schizophrenia trial (EUFEST) study

Abstract

Purpose: This study examined the validity of subjective clinical prognosis (SCP), a commonly used clinical tool, in first episode psychosis patients included in the European First Episode Schizophrenia Trial (EUFEST) study. Patients and Methods: The study comprised 455 patients from the EUFEST trial (mean age 25.92, SD=5.45; 188 (41.31%) women, 267 (58.69%) men). SCP was classified into three mutually exclusive groups: ‘good prognosis’ (GP) (n=265), ‘average prognosis’ (AP) (n=131), and ‘poor prognosis’ (PP) (n=59). The validity of the SCP was assessed by investigating the differences between the SCP groups and completer or responder status of the patients, during 1 year of the trial. Results: The proportion of completers was significantly higher in the GP group (64.4%) compared to the AP group (25.6%) (OR=1.62, 95% CI=1.062–2.476, p<0.031) and the PP group (10%) (OR=2.17, 95% CI=1.226–3.853, p<0.009) throughout the whole duration of the trial. In what concerns responsiveness, a significantly higher number of responders were registered in the GP group compared to the AP and the PP groups in the first three months of treatment, but this outcome did not persist afterwards. Conclusion: In terms of its predictive value at first episode schizophrenic patients, SCP seems to be reliable for treatment completion, but has a limited utility in what concerns responsiveness to treatment. This finding suggests the necessity of creating a prediction model potentially including, besides SCP, other measurement-based variables.