Skilful seasonal forecasts of wind energy generation in India during the western summer monsoon

Abstract

India’s ambitious climate goals include a significant role for wind energy, with plans for a nearly threefold expansion of the existing wind fleet within the next decade. At greater levels of wind deployment, the increased likelihood of extended periods of generation surplus and deficit presents a challenge for managing power supply. It is essential to characterise and predict how this energy source performs within India’s monsoon climate to ensure the reliable operation of the electricity system. This study demonstrates, for the first time, how large-scale atmospheric variables are related to seasonal wind energy generation anomalies in India during boreal summer. Furthermore, an operational seasonal forecasting system is shown to skilfully predict the atmospheric predictor variables at a lead time of 1-4 months, indicating an ability to forecast summer wind energy generation at the country and regional level in India. The explanatory power of the chosen atmospheric predictor variables remains high under the near-term planned expansion of the Indian wind fleet. These findings demonstrate the potential utility of seasonal forecast information for electricity system management in India.