Mechanism of bus-passengers decrease caused by fare rise

Abstract

In this paper the causes of decrease in the number of bus passengers are analyzed using the data of public bus enterprises in Japan. Although the spread of private-car owners looks like one of the most important factors, it is nothing but a primary one. The passengers' behavior has been influenced more directly by the fare rises. The passengers decrease consists of the short-term one and the long-term one which have their own mechanism. The latter has begun at a 'turning point' when the fare level overtook the consumer's price level. After that point there is a correlation between the rate of fare rise (X) and the rate of decrease (Y) as shown by y=1-exp[-0.47 X].