Climate drives variation in remotely sensed palm oil yield in Indonesia and Malaysia

Abstract

Global demand for palm oil is high due to its ubiquitous use as a vegetable oil, oleochemical product, and fuel. Indonesia and Malaysia are the highest producers of palm oil in the world, supplying 83% of the global demand. Although palm oil production is crucial in the region, the factors driving regional variation in palm oil yield remain unclear, with in-situ evidence indicating that management practices, climatic conditions, stand age, and the presence of peatland are the potential factors. In the current study, the spatiotemporal variation of the actual palm oil yield across Indonesia and Malaysia in the past 20 years was evaluated using national survey data, remote sensing, and machine learning. Our results indicate that 95% of plantations in the region experienced yield increases, with an average rate of 0.14 ± 0.09 ton ha−1 yr−1. Climatic conditions were identified as the primary drivers of yield, followed by management practices (i.e. industrial and smallholder). The optimal temperature for palm oil production is approximately 25 °C, and 93% of the plantation areas exceeded this figure. Meanwhile, precipitation generally enhanced yield, with peatland plantations being more sensitive to precipitation than non-peatland plantations. These findings delineate the key factors influencing palm oil yield variability and provide critical insights for improving management strategies and planning in the world’s largest palm oil-producing regions.