Simulation model of the quantified swot/tows matrix on an example of situational analysis at subnational level

Abstract

Based on the idea of converging the concepts and models used in real-sector strategic planning in order to be applied to the public sector, this paper is aimed at examining potential improvements of the standard process of strategic planning within regional economics, particularly in situational analysis as an initial stage. In accordance with the above, a simulation model of the application of quantified SWOT / TOWS matrix analysis was performed. Combinations of two methods of situational analysis were applied in the model, namely SWOT and TOWS matrix, and additionally introduced methods of Focus Group and Delphi method. Compared to the standard methods for developing strategic documents and analyses within the scope of regional economics planning, the proposed model emphasizes the connection between the real-sector tools and the strategic decision-making processes of the public sector, minimizes the subjectivization of the situational analysis by introducing the Delphi method, utilizing independent expert knowledge, which is also the main contribution of this model. The simulation model developed in this paper achieved satisfactory outcomes and could be applied in further research to solving of actual problems in strategic planning within the scope of regional economics. The model limitations are related to the quality of implementation of the focus group (sample, chief moderator’s expertise), the selection of experts for the Delphi analysis and the moderation of the Delphi method and the process of developing optional actions in the TOWS matrix. The paper’s main expected contributions are the findings obtained during modelling, model discussion and open questions related to potential future research, all based on the idea of convergence of the strategic planning tools used in the real and public sectors.Temeljeći se na ideji konvergencije koncepata i modela koji se koriste za strateško planiranje u realnom sektoru prema primjeni u javnom sektoru cilj ovog rada je razmotriti moguća unapređenja standardnog procesa strateškog planiranja na području regionalne ekonomike i to posebno u situacijskoj analizi kao početnoj fazi procesa. Sukladno navedenom u radu je izveden simulacijski model primjene kvantificirane SWOT/TOWS matrične analize. U modelu su primijenjene kombinacije dvije metode situacijske analize i to SWOT i TOWS matrica, te su dodatno uvedene metode Fokus grupe i Delfi analiza. U odnosu na standardne metode izrade strateških dokumenata i analiza u području planiranja regionalne ekonomike predloženi model naglašava povezanost alata područja realnog sektora sa procesima strateškog odlučivanja javnog sektora, smanjuje se subjektivizacija situacijske analize uvođenjem Delfi metode s utilizacijom ekspertnih i neovisnih znanja što je i glavni doprinos ovog modela. Simulacijski model izveden u radu pokazuje zadovoljavajuće ishode, te bi u nastavku istraživanja bilo moguće model primijeniti u rješavanju realnih problema strateškog planiranja na području regionalne ekonomike. Ograničenja modela vezana su uz kvalitetu izvođenja fokus grupe (uzorak, ekspertiza glavnog moderatora), odabir stručnjaka za Delfi analizu i moderiranje Defli metode, te na proces izrade opcijskih akcija u TOWS matrici. Nalazi iz procesa modeliranja, diskusija modela i otvorena pitanja vezana uz moguća daljnja istraživanja, a sve temeljno na ideji konvergencije alata strateškog planiranja realnog i javnog sektora, predstavljaju i očekivani glavni doprinos ovog rada.