Scheduling Construction Processes Using the Probabilistic Time Coupling Method III

Abstract

The paper presents modelling of construction project schedules using new method: Probabilistic Time Coupling Method III (PTCM III). It is presented in EXCEL application with a description of the calculation scheme. The correctness of the PTCM method was checked by comparison with the results obtained for the same data in the Risky Project Professional (RPP) program. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the PTCM III method is the closest to the RPP, taking into account the beta distribution of the probability of times. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is less than 1%, so it can be assumed that the matching of these two calculation methods is excellent.