Trends and variability of ocean waves under RCP8.5 emission scenario in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

Wind-generated ocean waves are key inputs for several studies and applications, both near the coast (coastal vulnerability assessment, coastal structures design, harbor operativity) and off-shore (a.o. oil and gas production, ship routes, and navigation safety). As such, the evaluation of trends in future wave climate is fundamental for the development of efficient policies in the framework of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. This study focuses on the Mediterranean Sea, an area of primary interest, since it plays a crucial role in the worldwide maritime transport and it is highly populated along all its coasts. We perform an analysis of wave climate changes using an ensemble of 7 models under emission scenario RCP8.5, over the entire Mediterranean basin. Future projections of wave climate and their variability are analyzed taking into account annual statistics of wave parameters, such as significant wave height, mean period, and mean direction. The results show, on average, a decreasing trend of significant wave height and mean period, while the wave directions may be characterized by a slight eastward shift.