ANÁLISE DE RISCO SOBRE O IMPACTO DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS GLOBAIS NA DISTRIBUIÇÃO ESPACIAL DA PINTA PRETA DO MAMOEIRO NO BRASIL

Abstract

SUMMARY: Papaya has a wide geographical distribution, which demonstrates the great adaptability to different climatic conditions, being fruit from a tropical climate. Global climate change (GCC) scheduled for the coming decades could alter the disease problems of papaya crop, so it is necessary and urgent to understand the impacts of these diseases on the GCC in order to avoid them. This study aimed to analyze possible impacts on the GCC black spot of papaya in Brazil, through the mapping of disease distribution made from the IPCC scenarios. The maps show a reduction in the favorable area for the disease in relation to both current climate for future scenarios (scenario A2 as for B2). The reductions in disease incidence will be more pronounced for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. This fact is probably related to the reduction in relative humidity to levels